David Hale

"There are four main factors that explain why the current cycle has not been accompanied by big bank failures."

"The economy of the United States is separated from much of the rest of the world by the extraordinary strength of its banking system."

"It is ironic that a non-democratic country such as China should play a critical role in revitalizing the democratic institutions of Mexico."

"The statistic is that the countries of East Asia now account for 70 per cent of global foreign exchange reserves compared with only 30 per cent in 1990."

"If the trend toward economic opening continues, it should help to encourage more tolerance of political freedom in the Muslim world."

"As a result of the strong rebound in U.S. real GDP growth, the odds are high that American will experience at least a modest employment recovery this winter."

"It is difficult to believe that the world economy could be so vulnerable to a few employment statistics."

"The lesson from India is that Western countries cannot be dogmatic about elections."

"The only question is how far the dollar will have to fall to provoke buyers outside of East Asia to intervene."

"The good news is that countries other than Japan and Chine care about the dollar’s value."

"It is very distressing that many American politicians now associate globalization with a loss of jobs."

"The fact is that Daley cannot be a credible player on the global stage when his own party produces a congressional delegation dedicated to closing the world’s markets."

"The U.S. has been so obsessed with China’s exchange rate policy, it has not yet begun to focus upon the geo-political consequences of China’s need for commodities."

"The President is likely to continue to increase defence spending by an amount at least equal to the inflation rate."

"China’s decision to pursue a stable exchange rate against the dollar last year encouraged all Asian central banks to buy U.S. government securities."

"Ultimately, China will have a true market economy for money and capital, not just physical assets."

"Karl Rove should send [Margaret Marshall] a bouquet of flowers."

"America’s policy of low interest rates...could set the stage for significant corrections when monetary policy returns to normal during 2005 and 2006."

"If the trend toward economic opening continues, it should encourage more tolerance of political freedom and democracy in the Muslim world."

"The decline of the dollar is only the first step in the process of adjusting America’s balance of payments."

"Yet a potential problem is that house prices are likely to stabilize or even decline sometime in the future."

"There can be little doubt that China’s ravenous thirst for raw materials will soon become a major concern for U.S. relations with China."

"There is no way of knowing yet when the Fed will achieve a level of interest rates adequate to cool the housing boom."

"China is now in the midst of one of the most profound economic transformations to occur in any country during the past two hundred years."

"There are diverse views in the region about the rise of China as a great economic power."

"One of the most remarkable features of the world economy today is the role of housing inflation in driving the growth rates of the leading English-speaking countries."

"Only one thing is certain. The US economy has spent the early years of the new millennium in a series of rotating bubbles between the equity & housing markets."

"There is now far more willingness to collaborate in the region than was the case before the 1997-98 crisis."

"The prospect of profits eroding and interest rates declining will make the dollar a less competitive currency."

"What remains to been seen is whether falling gasoline prices will provide any relief for the U.S. auto industry."

"The risks today center on the highly leveraged consumers sectors in the English speaking countries."

"The Dems will attempt to reconcile their historical support for free trade with the new fears about globalization by promoting better labor conditions in the 3rd world."

"America's asset markets are too large and flexible for there to be a sustained interruption of capital inflows and an enduring decline in the dollar exchange rate."

"East Asia responded to its large current account deficits ten years ago by letting its exchange rates depreciate."

"The deal signals that China now intends to be a player in the mainstream of the financial markets rather than being a merely passive investor in government debt."

"It is ironic that China is joining in the global private equity boom in order to divert capital from its bubbly stock market."

"The new challenges facing East Asia are the reverse of ten years ago."

"How strange the final legacy of the East Asian financial crisis should be a protectionist America protesting against a current account deficit."

"The world economy is currently experiencing a level of growth unsurpassed in human history."

"The Fed is in a quandary."

"Competitive factors...will...produce the same trend in Japan as in other industrial countries an expanded profit share of GDP with greater income disparity among workers."

"This obsession with China's exchange rate on top of the credit crisis has been fatal for confidence in the dollar. If Saudi Arabia now gives up on the dollar."

"The Chinese economic takeoff is having dramatic spillover effects on many developing countries by boosting both commodity prices and world trade."

"The rescue of leading US financial institutions by developing countries is a complete reversal of the 20th century history."

"The G-7 must adapt or become irrelevant."

"Asia in 2008 has an unprecedented opportunity for playing a growth leadership role in its own right."

"The devastation he has inflicted on his country is so great that every action must be taken to end his rule as quickly as possible."

"If the Congress does not want to rescue the US banks during 2009, it must stabilize the housing market during 2008."

"The main reason commodity prices have been so resilient is the changing composition of global output. Developing countries have become the world's dominant growth leaders."

"The large increase in the oil price will continue to provoke debate about the character of the oil market and the potential for price manipulation."

"It increasingly appears that China will emerge as a winner from the current economic crisis."

"The most important factor shaping Mr. Bernanke's monetary policy is his great knowledge of economic history."

"There can be little doubt that the most enduring legacy of Mr. Hank Paulson's tenure as Treasury Secretary will be a landslide electoral victory for Senator Barack Obama."

"Economist David Hale explained why East Asia had to come to the rescue of the United States."

"If Canada's provinces can now follow the PM's suggestion to formally open their procurement markets, NAFTA will ensure that the U.S. market is open to Canadian firms."

"Precious metals could emerge as a hedge for investors suspicious of central banks."

"The US has a greater responsibility than other countries to pursue intelligent responses to the current global economic trauma."

"It is essential that President Barack Obama use the [G-20 Summit] to articulate clear goals and bolster global confidence in his leadership."

"The Obama administration will have to protect the dollar's global reserve currency role in order to fund its deficits."

"If Canada's provinces can now follow the prime minister's suggestion to formally open their procurement markets, NAFTA will ensure that the U.S. market is open to Canada."

"The second factor driving the equity market has been the success of the US corporate sector in slashing costs to protect profits."

"The best guarantee for maintaining low inflation after the current recession is for the Obama administration to protect the independence of the Federal Reserve."

"These productivity differentials mean that US business will enter the new year 10-15 per cent more competitive against Europe and Japan than it was a year ago."

"There is one currency which is likely to rally against the dollar—the Chinese renminbi."

"There is no way to predict the timing of China’s future gold purchases, but there can be little doubt they will create a demand for gold that will dwarf all other factors."

"If employment growth does not revive, the recovery will falter again and require policy makers to keep applying monetary and fiscal stimulus."

"If the structural changes now occurring in wages and the cost of capital dampen profits and investment, they could also gradually reduce China’s potential growth rate."

"The persistence of the deficit and the large declines now occurring in federal aid will force the state to keep tight control on spending for another two years."

"The White House and Congress must restore confidence by taking action to reverse the fiscal drag projected in 2012 while offering a credible plan for deficit reduction."

"There is little doubt that the US will need a prolonged period of fiscal austerity in order to reduce its structural budget deficit."

"[Forecasters] fear that wealth losses in the equity market and the shock to business confidence could overwhelm the traditional factors driving the business cycle."

"There would be minimal risks for Scotland in pegging its new currency to the Norwegian krone."

"The G-8 countries will be relieved that the US economy is regaining momentum at a time when Europe is confronting recession and China is showing signs of slowing down."

"It’s worth asking why Britain has found recovery quite so hard, whether George Osborne or his predecessors are to blame, and whether growth is now finally returning."

"Economist David Hale, chairman of David Hale Global Economics, said in general he expects stronger growth in the countries that are members of the Pacific Alliance" Published in the Miami Herald.

And it would come at a time when most industrial countries are too concerned about their fiscal deficits to propose new tax cuts.

If the nuclear deal with Iran succeeds, the world will see a great shift in geopolitics and economic growth.

During the 1930s, long before the IMF, the British Empire coped with a debt crisis in a small country. This is a tale of the choice between debt and democracy. It shouldn’t be forgotten.

CGTN Global Business video

INET's complete interview with David Hale, he discusses possible economic scenarios of the future that could inspire new thinking.

Infrastructure investment has experienced a renaissance of interest since the turn of the century. After a decade where investment failed to keep up with global GDP growth during the 1990s, there was a surge of infrastructure investment that was driven across all types of infrastructure sectors during the 2000s.

Few nations have changed as fast—or as dramatically—as China has since the 1970s. The world’s most populous nation has radically liberalized its economy and gone from producing low-quality and simple exports to sophisticated high-technology goods, while nurturing a vibrant private sector and attracting nearly $500 billion in foreign direct investment (fdi).